Personal Weather Outlook by: Joshua Schank

As of May 8, 2020, I officially have a B.S. degree in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma. This page is where I will write a forecast discussion for NW Missouri. Since I am looking for a job and I may not be able to keep this website updated during severe weather, please consult the National Weather Service for up-to-date weather information: NWS Website.

If you would like to see some of the forecasts that I wrote back in college, you can view them with this link: Archives

If you have any questions, comments, or requests you can send them to: joshua.l.schank@jschank.com.

Forecast Discussion:


Northern Platte County Area Discussion
Issued: 6:25 PM CDT (2325Z), Sunday, October 25, 2020

...SYNOPSIS...
I am willing to bet that everyone's focus weatherwise is the chance of wintery precipitation tonight into Monday. Right now we are looking at a rain tonight turning into a snow event on Mondya with some freezing rain possible during the transition. Exact precipitation type will depend on the thermal profile and if you want higher amounts then you want convection to be present. Models at the moment have a quick transition to snow north of Kansas City, and convection happening south of Kansas City. 

...CURRENT CONDITIONS (6:25 PM)...
My weather station shows our temperature currently sitting around 38°F with a light north wind.

...FORECAST...
(Tonight-Monday)
We are currently above freezing as I am writing this discussion and radar is hinting at some light drizzle starting to take place in the most northern parts of NW MO. Thanks to a low to our south we have northeasterly winds that will continue into Monday which will promote cold air advection (CAA) as tonight's low temperature is expected to drop to around 27°F, but models show us staying above freezing until about 3 AM Monday morning. The CAA will help setup surface temperatures to be around or below freezing during the time precipitation is expected to develop and be widespread as the mid level trough moves into the Great Plains. Our high temperature around 32°F will occur during the morning hours. The areas south of I-70 where temperatures may hover above freezing a longer as the models are placing the transition between snow and rain around that area. Currently, I am expecting snow totals from St. Joseph to northern parts of Kansas City, MO being 1"-2" with models wanting to create convection around I-70 and areas south which could cause isolated areas of 3".

(Tuesday-Friday)
The long wave trough will begin to close off Tuesday into Wednesday which will stop the CAA into our area late Tuesday as the sun may reappear and give us a high around 37°F. Wednesday will see the return of southerly winds as the high jumps back up to around 48°F. As the cut off trough moves across Texas Thursday, the chance of rain returns to our area as our high temperature remains around 48°F. Friday, the mostly clear skies is expected to return as the rain moves off to our east and highs in the low 50s return.

Forecaster: SCHANK
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