I will try to update this page when severe weather threatens Missouri and Oklahoma. I will especially focus on areas like Kansas City and northward toward Savannah along with the area around Springfield, MO which includes Branson. In Oklahoma I will focus around the Oklahoma City and Norman area. Otherwise, I will post general weather discussions or discuss the chance of severe weather for other parts of the country as time allows.
General Weather Forecast
Issued 0215 PM CST Friday January 18, 2019
...Discussing the Winter Weather Event this Friday and Saturday for NW MO...
...Update 0230 PM CST Friday January 18, 2019...
Looking at current radar images it appears that a narrow band of precip-
itation has form near St. Joesph over the past hour. Radar indicates that
the precipitation is starting to become snow in Andrew county and areas
northeastward and is still falling as rain in Buchanan county and areas
southward.
Recent runs of the models that I have been looking at show the center of the
low pressure system tracking southeastern toward the OK/TX border before
following a more eastern track as it moves towards Arkansas and the finally
turning toward the northeast on Saturday. The NAM 3km and HRRR models shows
the bulk of the precipitaion starting around 4 pm today as a rain/wintery
mix before changing over to snow by 8 pm for most of NW MO. The HRRR and the
Nam 3km differ on the exact location and size of the heavy snow bands that
both models show forming as the system moves through. Both models agree
that a heavy band of snow will fall in a southwest to northeast path
across NW MO. The NAM 3km want to create a large band so towns like
St. Joseph, Savannah, Maysville, and towns northeastward like Bethany,
Trenton, and Harris that sit near the center of the band seeing snow totals
approaching 6+ inches of snow. The NAM also as a weak gradient so towns near
the snow band like Dearborn, Oregon, and Gentry could see snow totals around
3+ inches. The HRRR on the other hand wants to decrease the size
of the snow band, shift it eastward, tighten the snow gradient, and create
another heavy band near Columbia and towns eastward toward St. Louis. This
means St. Joseph could see snow totals closer to 3-6 inches with towns north
and south of St. Joseph seeing 2-4 inches with totals for Kansas City being
closer to an inch of snow.
...Previous Discussion 1000 PM CST Wednesday January 16, 2019...
Responding to the request of my friends back in NW MO, I will give my
thoughts on this weekend's weather event. The upper level trough is
currently in the Pacific Ocean as it approaches the west coast. Weather
models still agree that the trough will move into central part of the U.S
and create a surface low that moves across the contiental United States. The
models still have a degree of uncertainty in the track and strength/deeping
of the low as some runs of the models want to put the track of the low
further south into Oklahoma and delay the strengthing of the low. These
factors will affect the amount of snow that we will expect from this system.
Also, with the delay/lack of strengthing of the storm in the recent runs the
models have backed off on the wind speeds that would be present with the
storm. I still believe this storm will have stronger winds compared to last
weekend's storm which had little to no wind during the snowfall. Stronger
winds can cause low visibility due to blowing snow and can make driving
difficult even after the snow stops falling.
None of the models that I have looked at show the center of the low lifting
northward and traveling over or north of Kansas City, MO. This supports
confidence in the main mode of precipiation Friday night into Saturday will
be snow. When the low first starts to move into our area there is a period
where the precipitation in front of the system could be in the form of rain
as Friday's high temperature, at the moment, are expected to be around 36 F.
The heaviest snowfall usually occures in a band north of the center of a low
pressesure system, so the exact track and strength of the system will
determine our snow totals. Because of my lack of experience in winter
weather forecasting I would be an unreliable source for snowfall totals,
however for the fun of it I would expect the totals around 4-8 inches if the
storm track is more northern and/or the storm strengthens and 1-4 inches if
the track follows the more southern track and strength of the current model
runs. Either way this system will bring very cold air into NW MO with
tempertures on Saturday only reach the lower 20's.
...Schank 1/18/19...
The style of my discussions/forecasts are based on the SPC's discussions and any updates are listed from new to old, so keep that in mind when reading my discussion down below.
Disclaimer: All discussions, forecasts, and opinions on this website are mine alone, unless stated otherwise, and should not be use in severe weather decisions. Consult with the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center for up-to-date severe weather information:
NWS Website
and SPC Website
If you have any questions or comments you can send emails to the website's email account:
joshua.l.schank@schankweatherstationmo.oucreate.com
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General Weather Forecast Discussion