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I will try to update this page when severe weather threatens Missouri and Oklahoma. I will especially focus on areas like Kansas City and northward toward Savannah along with the area around Springfield, MO which includes Branson. In Oklahoma I will focus around the Oklahoma City and Norman area. Otherwise, I will post general weather discussions or discuss the chance of severe weather for other parts of the country as time allows.
The style of my discussions/forecasts are based on the SPC's discussions and any updates are listed from new to old, so keep that in mind when reading my discussion down below.
Disclaimer: All discussions, forecasts, and opinions on this website are mine alone, unless stated otherwise, and should not be use in severe weather decisions. Consult with the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center for up-to-date severe weather information: NWS Website and SPC Website
If you have any questions or comments you can send emails to the website's email account: joshua.l.schank@schankweatherstationmo.oucreate.com
Severe Weather Forecast
Issued 1150 AM CDT Saturday, May 25, 2019
....Discussion Summary....
We have been experiencing a pretty active weather pattern in the central
part of the United States. States such as Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and
Missouri have experiencd several rounds of severe storms producing severe
winds, hail, and tornadoes. We also cannot foreget about the flooding caused
by these storm and the wet winter and spring that we have experience so far.
The severe weather pattern will continue as the Storm Prediction Center's
Convective Outlooks continue to highlight severe weather risks for the Great
Plains to the Ohio Valley over the next few days.
...Synopsis of Weather System...
Upper air maps from this morning show a closed low position over over Idaho
and Wyoming border. This time the the surface low is located around the
Colorado/Kansas border. Analysis of surface maps show a surface boundary in
the form of a stationary/cold front stretching from New Mexico and
stretching northeastward up into Wisconsin. A warm front appears from Ohio
to South Carolina. The stationary/cold front and the northern portion
of the warm front will help provide the lift needed for storm development
so these areas have the highest chance of storms and possible severe storms
forming.
The 12Z soundings especially form the TX/OK panhandle and into Kansas show
an envirnoment that is experiencing decent moisture return and a favorable
shear that could support the formation of supercells with damaging winds,
hail, and the possiblity of a few tornadoes.
...Area Forecast Focus: Northwest Missouri...
After storm form in Okalhoma and Kansas, they will move northeastward into
Missouri. Though the tornado risk will be much lower here, the risk for
damaging straight-line winds and hail will still presist. Heavy rain is
expected from these storms which will increase the risk of flooding
especially along already swollen river and streams. Storms will most likely
arrive overnight and I believe it will be around midnight.
...Schank 5/25/19...
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