I will try to update this page when severe weather threatens Missouri and Oklahoma. I will especially focus on areas like Kansas City and northward toward Savannah along with the area around Springfield, MO which includes Branson. In Oklahoma I will focus around the Oklahoma City and Norman area. Otherwise, I will post general weather discussions or discuss the chance of severe weather for other parts of the country as time allows.
The style of my discussions/forecasts are based on the SPC's discussions and any updates are listed from new to old, so keep that in mind when reading my discussion down below.
Disclaimer: All discussions, forecasts, and opinions on this website are mine alone, unless stated otherwise, and should not be use in severe weather decisions. Consult with the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center for up-to-date severe weather information:
NWS Website
and SPC Website
If you have any questions or comments you can send emails to the website's email account:
joshua.l.schank@schankweatherstationmo.oucreate.com
Severe Weather Discussion
Severe Weather Forecast
Issued 0700 PM CDT Tuesday, April 16, 2019
...Update Tuesday, April 16, at 7:20 PM CDT...
Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet show the models seem to be trending
too high with the dewpoint temperatures at the moment. This could affect
storm development as moisture is needed to overcome the cap/temperature
inversion.
....Discussion Summary....
The focus of this discussion will focus on the severe weather threat for
Wednesday, April 17, with emphasizes on Norman, OK, College Station, TX,
Springfield, MO and Kansas City, MO. The main threat for Wednesday will be
large hail when storms start to develop during the afternoon/evening hours.
As we continue through the night, the main threat will mostly be related to
wind.
...Synopsis...
Supported by a upper-level trough, a low-pressure system will strengthen in
the TX/OK panhandle. The dryline will position itself from southwestern OK
through central Texas. A cold front will push through Oklahoma and Texas
once the low moves eastward Wednesday night.
Dewpoint temperatures from northeren Missouri to most of Texas will be in
the mid to upper 60's with strong daytime heating occuring in front of the
dryline. This heating will overcome the instability that was present earlier
in the day in Oklahoma and Texas. Storms will also develop ahead of the cold
front and move across Kansas and Missouri in the evening and night hours.
Shear for this event will increase but it does not look supportive,
especially in the lower 3 km where winds do not veer much as seen in 700 mb
leves in most model runs (except the HRRR), for tornadic/supercell activity,
but such storms are still possible.
...OKlahoma and Texas...
The main threat, especially during the first couple hours after storm
development will be large hail as steep lapse-rates and deep-layer shear
will support strong updrafts that are supportive of hail development. It
looks that storm development will becomce more linear with time as
outflow boundaries from earlier storms will lead to more widespread
development and the main threat will transition to damaging winds.
...Kansas and Missouri...
As you move northward away from the dryline models, show storm initation
ahead of the cold front to occur later in the evening compared to storm
initation in Oklahoma and Texas. Without the support of daytime heating the
potential of severe weather will decrease as we move into the nighttime
hours. Hail risk for this area is lower compared to Oklahoma and Texas as
widespread damaging winds from thuderstorms appear to be the main risk.
The main storm mode for this area will mostly be linear as multiceller
thunderstorms or become a mesoscale convective system.
...Schank 4/16/19...