Personal Experimental Severe Weather Outlook for May 02, 2018 by: Joshua Schank

Back to Archive Page

I will try to update this page when severe weather threatens Missouri. I will especially focus on areas like Kansas City, MO and northward along with the area around Springfield, MO which includes Branson, MO. The style of my discussions/forecasts are based on the SPC's discussions and any updates are listed from new to old, so keep that in mind when reading my discussion down below.

Disclaimer: All discussions, forecasts, and opinions on this website are mine alone, unless stated otherwise, and should not be use in severe weather decisions. Consult with the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center for up-to-date severe weather information: NWS Website and SPC Website


If you have any questions or comments you can send emails to the website's email account: joshua.l.schank@schankweatherstationmo.oucreate.com

Severe Weather Discussion for Next Week *Check for Updates*

                
    Severe Weather Forecast
    Issued 1200 PM CDT Wednesday May 02, 2018
    
    Valid Wednesday May 02, 2018 - Thursday May 03, 2018
    
    ...Discussion...
    There is a chance of severe weather for Wednesday and Thursday this week. A
   changing synoptic-scale pattern shows a large-scale trough developing over
   the western portion of the United States. This will help cause winds over the
   Gulf of Mexico and the southern Plains to veer southerly and transport warm
   moist air northward from the Gulf to the Plains. The moisturing of the
   boundary layer and the possible advection of desent lapse rates will lead to
   unstable air over the central plains. 
   
   On Wednesday/D1 storms will probably be more wide spread as the trough moves
   eastward closer to the Plains compared to Tuesday. Low-level moisture will be
   well established as winds continue to be southernly over the Gulf and
   southern Plains. A surface low will be developing around the Colorado and
   Kansas border with the stationary front stretching from northern Kanasas or
   southern Nebraska and Iowa. The dryline has mixed further east and is now in
   east-central Kansas and down into central Texas. The risk of severe weather
   is greatest in central and NE Kansas into NW Missouri and down into Oklahoma
   near the panhandle. Steep mid-level lapse rates with large amount of CAPE
   and instablility will lead to a high chance of hail and severe winds. Tornado
   risk is hard to determine because hodograph/shear is not that impressive in
   the observe and forecast soundings at the moment especially in NE KS and NW 
   MO. However, the tornado threat is still present.
   
    ...Schank 05/02/2018...

Here are the Convective Outlooks for Wednesday (May 2) from the SPC