Personal Weather Outlook by: Joshua Schank

As of May 8, 2020, I officially have a B.S. degree in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma and at the beginning of 2021 I started my new job in the NWS office in Guam. This page is where I will write a forecast discussion for NW Missouri. I may not be able to keep this website updated so, please consult the National Weather Service for up-to-date weather information: NWS Website.

If you would like to see some of the forecasts that I wrote back in college, you can view them with this link: Archives

If you have any questions, comments, or requests you can send them to: joshua.l.schank@jschank.com.

Forecast Discussion:

Northwest Missouri Area Discussion
Issued: 1:00 AM CDT (0700Z), Sunday, February 26, 2023
Reason: Request for a wind forecast for Sunday evening

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds tonight will be southwest and will be around 5 to 10 mph. 

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest winds tonight will become south and then southeast Sunday morning, sometime after sunrise, with winds speeds around 5-10 mph increasing to about 8 to 18 mph, with some gusts around 25 mph possible in afternoon as a low-pressure system develops in Western Kansas and slowly drifts east-northeast. This low-pressure system is part of the severe weather setup across the Great Plains, with the greatest severe weather risk being in Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and extending into southern to central Missouri.
As the low-pressure system moves near NW Missouri, winds will become more southerly and then southwest to west as the low passes to the northwest and the cold front moves through. Winds are also expected to increase with winds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, especially near heavy showers or thunderstorms overnight. These higher winds and the turning of winds to the south and then southwest is not expected until about 9 pm Sunday night, with west winds around 6 am Monday morning.

Current model guidance has bulk of showers and thunderstorms moving into NW Missouri near midnight, with some runs being as late as 2 am. However, instability ahead of the cold front and main line of storms could allow some showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the line, though not expecting must activity until after 6 pm, with current timing being closer to 8 to 10 pm.

Forecaster: SCHANK